Covid-19 Trends in South Africa

Effective Reproduction Number: Model V1

This is the original first draft of the Reproduction Number (Rt) model. Latest Rt for South Africa is 1.150, last calculated on 14 January 2021. No testing data and back dating of cases was applied.

Latest Provincial Reproduction Numbers (First mode version)

Eastern Cape

1.050

Free State

1.000

Guateng

0.600

Kwazulu Natal

None

Limpopo

1.140

Mpumalanga

1.220

Northen Cape

0.970

North West

1.330

Western Cape

1.010

Last calculated on 14 January 2021.

The following assumptions were applied to calculate the trends for this model

  1. Firstly note that this is the original first draft of the Rt model. The 'second' model on the home page takes more variables into consideration for the country's trend.
  2. Applies to provincial Rt plots.
  3. Smoothed average data is used.
  4. The error bands, indicating the 90% credibility interval, has temporary been removed.
  5. For regions with low case rates, only the date ranges with the most significant change is shown.
  6. The lag time between testing and positive case identification is not taken into account, due to the difficulty to obtain access to testing data for regions.