Covid-19 Trends in South Africa

Effective Reproduction Number: Model V1

Latest Rt (first model version) for South Africa is 1.25, last calculated on 15 October 2020. No testing data and back dating of cases was applied.

Latest Provincial Reproduction Numbers

Eastern Cape

0.91

Free State

1.06

Guateng

None

Kwazulu Natal

None

Limpopo

0.88

Mpumalanga

1.08

Northen Cape

0.93

North West

1.32

Western Cape

0.94

Last calculated on 15 October 2020.

The following assumptions were applied to calculate the trends for this model

  1. Applies to provincial Rt plots.
  2. Smoothed average data is used.
  3. The error bands, indicating the 90% credibility interval, has temporary been removed.
  4. For regions with low case rates, only the date ranges with the most significant change is shown.
  5. The lag time between testing and positive case identification is not taken into account, due to the difficulty to obtain access to testing data for regions.